What’s On Our Minds:
After a long cruise of low volatility and smooth sailing upward, the S&P 500 and DJIA officially dipped into “correction” territory last Thursday as the index shed 3.8% of its value. By definition, a correction is a reverse movement of at least 10% in value for a financial asset. Last week, both indexes officially reached correction territory when they dropped by just over 10% from their peaks that were reached on January 26th.
This correction is the first since the one that ended in mid-February 2016. Back then, investors were worried about a possible recession in the U.S. economy, falling oil prices, and a decrease in value of the Chinese renminbi. The current correction can be linked to worries of rising inflation spurred by an acceleration of global growth.
While it’s tough watching the equity portion of your account drop by 10%, market corrections can be healthy for both the markets and investors. Remember, even though we haven’t experienced any real volatility recently, (up until the past 10 days, that is) historically the stock market can be very volatile on a short-term basis but has a strong track record over the long term.
As of Friday’s close, the stock market is down 8.7% from its record high and indices are back to levels where they were in early December of last year. Last week it seemed as if volatility begot more volatility as trades unwound amid a chain reaction where emotion took hold and caused some investors to sell.
For some perspective, this is the fifth 10% correction we have experienced since the current bull market began its run in 2009. In the chart below, you will notice that it takes some time for the market to find its footing after a correction and to then recover its initial 10% loss. However, in each scenario markets have tested a bottom and recovered to previous levels. (Note: In 2015, the S&P 500 experienced another 10% correction before it reached its previous high.) On average, since 2009, it has taken 220 days for the S&P 500 to recover to its previous high following a 10% correction.
Of course, what has happened during similar situations in the past is not indicative of how this particular correction will play itself out, but one thing is for certain: corrections happen from time to time and they should be expected. Furthermore, in many cases a correction can be viewed as an opportunity for investors to test how comfortable they are with market risk, and to make changes to their portfolio if warranted. Also, corrections present investors an opportunity to potentially add to positions in companies at a discounted price, or to dollar cost average down on existing positions.
Last Week’s Highlights:
It was a volatile week for markets. Equity indices ping ponged up and down and finished the week deeply in the red. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were down 5.2%. The CBOE volatility index spiked to 49 on Tuesday before settling in the mid-30s for much of the week. (The average for this index has been 18.51 since 2004.) Investors are attributing last week’s volatility to rising interest rates and the unwinding of volatility bets that went bad for certain investors.
Earnings season will continue to wrap up this week with 59 companies from the S&P 500 reporting.
On Monday, President Trump is plans to announce a $1.5 trillion infrastructure spending plan.
Wednesday’s inflation report will be very important as much of last week’s volatility was partially spurred by fears that high inflation will be brought on by recent wage growth and economic expansion. Retail sales will also report on Wednesday, followed by consumer sentiment on Friday.
What’s On Our Minds:
Equity investors have spent the last year enjoying green flashing across their trading screens and have shrugged off economic and geopolitical risk. They’ve cited the strength of the U.S. economy, driven by banner corporate profits and President Trump’s push for lower taxes and reduced regulation. This bullish sentiment drove major indexes to gain more than 20% in 2017 and had the market hitting all-time highs. After a string of records, an eventual pullback should not be viewed as cause for panic.
Last week, investors suddenly became skittish as we saw volatility return to equity markets. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell by more than 3.5%, posting their worst week since January 2016. The pullback is being attributed to a recent bump in interest rates. Expectations for further Fed policy tightening and stronger economic readings have pushed rates and caught investors’ attention. It should not be forgotten that interest rates are still sitting at historically low levels, and while we are expecting them to rise gradually this year, rates should remain well below levels that risk choking off economic growth.
In times like these Tufton Capital stresses the importance of staying level headed in the face of changing market conditions. In fact, most experts have been predicting this sell off for some time, given that we have enjoyed unprecedented levels of low volatility over the past 12 months. Since 1900, the U.S. has seen 125 corrections of 10% or more (roughly one per year). So, if we end up getting into the 5-10% correction territory, remember this is to be expected annually.
In short, as a firm focused on the long-term growth of our clients’ portfolios, we understand that volatility can be unsettling, but it should not be forgotten that the market is up 52% over the past 2 years and periodic dips should be expected. Occasionally, even the strongest of bull can get tired.
Last Week’s Highlights:
President Trump delivered his first State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. He attempted to stress unity and touted a strong economy and record stock prices. He outlined a path to citizenship for 1.8 million “dreamers” (children who were brought to the U.S. illegally by their parents) in exchange for funding a wall on the southern border and ending a visa lottery system.
Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan announced their intention to form a healthcare company that would lower healthcare costs for their employees. The company would be free from profit making incentives.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen ended her last meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee without raising rates.
Friday’s Jobs Report stated that the US labor force grew by 200,000 in January, beating analyst estimates. Average hourly earnings increased by 2.9% on an annualized basis, the best gain since the early days of the recovery in 2009.
Earnings season will continue to be in full swing this week. On Monday we will hear from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Hess, and Sysco. On Tuesday dozens of companies report including Chipotle, Gilead Sciences, Disney, and General Motors. Wednesday will bring along reports from 21st Century Fox, Humana, and Michael Kors. Thursday’s earnings released will be headlined by Grubhub, Kellogg, Yum Brands, and Tyson Foods. On Friday, we finish the week with reports from Pacific Gas & Electric and Brookfield Infrastructure.
What’s On Our Minds:
Last week, stocks rallied to fresh record highs, boosted by stronger-than-expected earnings reports from a number of US companies, corporate tax rate reductions, and an improving economy. Believe it or not, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are both up more than 7% after just one month of trading in 2018. Equity investors who have been long the market are likely riding high and feeling great as we continue to see gains but some might be asking, “how long can this bull run?”
As always, we continue to stress the importance of staying invested over the course of the market cycle. As history has shown us time and time again, it’s nearly impossible to successfully time the market (at the top or the bottom) and long term outperformance can be enjoyed by following a disciplined approach and investing throughout the market’s ups and downs.
Retail investors (those who trade their portfolios non-professionally) have performance that significantly lags the market overall. This dynamic occurs because they tend to act on emotion, selling at the bottom and missing the large early gains of a recovery. There is a common example often given of the costs of missing the “best days in the market” that shows this point, but we find it misleading—missing the worst days is just as good as missing the best days is bad! So instead, we focus on the fact that if you act on emotion, you tend to sell near bottoms. We’re not missing “the best days,” we’re standing on the sidelines for the best months: the recovery itself.
We encourage our clients and friends to remember that we look to the long-term and that downturns are not only “ok,” they are expected, and are a reminder that our understanding of the markets is sound. We look for areas of the market that have good long-term growth. Short-term, temporary problems are at worst inconsequential, and may present a buying opportunity.
It’s easy to say these things when the market is chugging along. But we also remember the panic 10 years ago, when it seemed the world was ending. Even then, we knew of those who called their advisor or portfolio manager in March 2009 and told them to sell it all. That was the absolute bottom, and you would have missed out on one of the longest bull market runs in history.
So, when the downturn comes, just remember: we’ve been here before, we’ll be here again, and we have a plan.
Last Week’s Highlights:
The stock market notched out impressive gains last week. All sectors advanced into the green with telecom as a leader. For the most part, earnings season has shown us that corporations had a positive fourth quarter and most reports have shared a positive outlook for 2018.
It will be a busy week for investors with a slew of important news coming across the wire. Throughout the week, 4th quarter earnings season will be in full swing. President Trump will deliver his State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening. Many are expecting him to provide some color on an infrastructure spending plan. The Federal Reserve will provide an updated policy statement on Wednesday. January’s Jobs Report will be released on Friday.
What’s On Our Minds:
The federal government will enter its third day under a partial shutdown on Monday after the Senate failed to break an impasse on Sunday. On Monday, roughly 800,000 federal workers woke up locked out of their jobs. This turmoil in D.C. has investors wondering what may happen to the stock market if this political stalemate persists over a long period.
While this post is not meant to predict what may happen during this shutdown period and past performance is not indicative of future results, historically, stocks have traditionally shrugged off the pessimism brought on by previous government shutdowns.
The partisan tug-of-war currently occurring in Washington is without a doubt disconcerting, but we continue to remind our clients and friends that there is no need to panic. In the past, government shutdowns have been fleeting events that have left no economic scars. All in all, volatility may tend to increase around these events, however, historically, shutdowns have had little lasting impact on markets. Remember, stock prices are almost random over short periods of time and it is important to focus on the long-term prospects of your portfolio.
Last Week’s Highlights:
The stock market didn’t miss a beat last week. It was an abbreviated week of trading due to the MLK holiday on Monday but market indices charged higher. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones are up by more than 5% this year after just 14 days of trading. Overall, there was giddy optimism among investors as corporations are still counting all the extra cash on hand that the reduced tax rate will make available to them.
79 companies from the S&P 500 will report their 4th quarter earnings this week. There will also be some important economic metrics released – existing home sales will be released on Wednesday, the Leading Economic Index will be reported on Thursday, and GDP from last year’s 4th quarter will be released on Friday.
by Chad Meyer
In this space, a bit over twelve months ago, I admitted that I didn’t have a clue what sort of market 2017 would bring. “Perhaps the economy will thrive…buoyed by the message that America is now ‘open for business’,” I wrote. “Or perhaps…our new president-elect will prove uniquely problematic, unduly influencing the market one late-night ‘tweet’ at a time.”
On Wall Street, however, where confidence is king, well-paid prognosticators were obliged to issue a more definite outlook. And as you may recall, that outlook was rather bleak. On January 3, 2017, CNBC reported that Wall Street’s collective annual forecast was the most bearish it had been in over a decade. The following day, Goldman Sachs warned clients of “downward pressure” on U.S. equities. With sociopolitical tumult and a bull market that was officially long in the tooth, it seemed as though worrying over a slowdown was the respectable analyst’s only prudent move.
What happened next is history. Over the last twelve months, that bull market has grown even longer in the tooth, surmounting the Street’s “wall of worry” (and continued sociopolitical tumult) in truly rare form. In 2017, while volatility sat at historic lows, the S&P 500 rose 22% (total return), posting its largest yearly gain since 2013. Not to be outdone, the Dow Jones shot up 25%, its second-biggest annual gain of the last decade. With this increase, it turned in nine consecutive months of growth, its longest streak since 1959. So much, it would seem, for those January jitters.
Yet, pleasant as the market’s surprises were in 2017, one question still looms large. What should investors expect in the year ahead? Given the strong start U.S. equities have already had in 2018, it’s no surprise that many once-dour pundits have taken on a sunnier tone. Open the morning paper, and you’re likely to read about the market’s “record run,” spurred on by an encouraging global economic outlook. As Goldman Sachs’ asset management arm now succinctly puts it, “We think equities will continue to outperform in 2018.”
We certainly hope Goldman Sachs’ prognostication will prove to be the case. However, all good things must eventually come to an end, and we at Tufton Capital will continue to implement a bottom-up, value-driven investment philosophy that delivers performance in a strong market—and perhaps more importantly – provides peace of mind when things take a turn for the worse. For twenty-two years, this approach has kept our clients in good stead from the “Great Recession” of 2008 throughout the “great gains” of 2017.
As we charge into 2018, I will again forgo a firm “outlook”. Instead, I offer this simple assurance. Above all else, your team of investment professionals at Tufton Capital remains honored by your trust and committed to your interests. From all of us here at Tufton Capital, Happy New Year.
by Eric Schopf
The frigid weather that ushered in the New Year has been no match for the red hot stock market. The Standard and Poor’s 500 delivered a total return of 6.6% for the fourth quarter and 21.8% for the year. As many expected, the fourth quarter continued the trend of consistent returns with little volatility. Although technology stocks led the way with returns in excess of 38%, the rally was broad with most sectors posting double-digit returns. This widespread improving economy, combined with low interest rates and benign inflation, continues to attract investors to the equity market.
Interest rates were once again on the move, with the Federal Reserve raising the Federal Funds rate to 1.5% in December. This rate increase was the fifth since the Fed began tightening two years ago. Despite the increases, interest rates are not yet attractive enough to entice investors to move out of stocks and into bonds. Longer-term interest rates continue to be a challenge. Although the Fed has raised the Fed Funds rate from .25% to 1.5% since the tightening cycle began in 2015, longer-term rates (maturities of 10 years or greater) have essentially remained unchanged. Although the business cycle is approaching maturity, which would normally suggest some shift to bonds, we thus have little appetite for the longer-term instruments that offer returns that are just slightly higher than the rate of inflation. Higher rates on the short-end are a welcome relief. It is nice to actually earn something greater than zero on cash held in money market funds.
The major news headline in the quarter was tax reform. The Tax Cut and Jobs Act was passed along party lines in late December and provides some tax relief for many individuals. However, the lion’s share of the law was designed to reduce corporate taxes. Although the corporate rate has been reduced to 21% from 35%, the impact will vary from company to company. Legions of accountants are employed to minimize corporate taxes, so most corporations have not been taxed at the 35% level. Nonetheless, extra cash generated through any tax savings may be deployed in a shareholder-friendly fashion. Investment in plant and equipment made to produce future earnings or reduce costs, share buybacks, and higher dividends are all potential uses of the extra cash. President Trump and his administration expect the lower tax rate to help “make America great again” by attracting more business back to our shores from abroad and igniting economic growth.
While lower corporate taxes are a good thing, there is no such thing as a free lunch. Unless spending is reduced or economic growth truly does generate enough incremental tax revenue to allow the tax cuts to be self-funding, the Treasury will need to issue a lot of debt to cover the expected expansion of our nation’s deficit. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the deficit will grow by $1 trillion over the next decade. The issuance of debt to cover the deficit will come at a time when the Federal Reserve is winding down their balance sheet amassed during quantitative easing. The end result will most likely be higher interest rates.
Low interest rates have not been the only pillar of the soon-to-be nine year old bull market. The economy has improved, which has had a tremendous impact on the equity market. Gross domestic product grew in excess of 3% in the second and third quarters. This is the first time our economy has grown at these rates for consecutive quarters since 2014. Additionally, consumer confidence has bubbled higher. Confidence hasn’t been this high since the dotcom era of 1997 to 2000, and it may further improve once individuals feel the impact of lower taxes. Corporate earnings growth has also provided a stable footing for the stock market. Wall Street estimates going forward are strong, and the rebound in energy prices should drop to the bottom line for a wide range of companies that support the industry.
Our optimistic outlook for the near term reflects the mosaic of earnings growth, low inflation and interest rates, along with the continuation of a strengthening economy. We temper our enthusiasm knowing that the business cycle is not extinct. The five interest rate hikes initiated by the Federal Reserve have not put a damper on the economy. However, with three or four more hikes potentially in the cards for this year, the impact may be more apparent. We must also pay attention to the fact that the growth in share prices has been much greater than underlying earnings. Stocks are just more expensive. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find quality investments at reasonable prices. Finally, consumers are very confident and are spending freely. The U.S. savings rate has dipped below 3%, the lowest levels since 2005 – 2007, prior to the Great Recession.
Soaring consumer confidence and dwindling personal saving leave little room for future improvement. It may seem that all these factors together suggest imminent recession. However, history has proven that these conditions may persist for many years.
Although we turn the calendar to a new year, our investment style and strategy remain consistent. We continue to seek quality companies that are trading at temporarily depressed levels. We place a premium on above-average dividends and sound balance sheets. Portfolios are maintained within asset allocation guidelines spelled out in our clients’ investment policy statements. This consistent and disciplined approach has served Tufton’s clients well over the numerous business cycles throughout our firm’s twenty-two year history.
by John Kernan
International Business Machines (IBM) reinvented itself before. Now it is looking to do it again. In the tech boom of the late 1990’s, IBM developed a technology services business that became the envy of all the other big tech names. Meanwhile, the company started to move away from the hardware businesses that defined it for a generation. Now, it seeks to make a new name for itself in the burgeoning field of artificial intelligence.
The impressive defeat of all human challengers on Jeopardy was remarkable for sure, but IBM’s powerhouse artificial intelligence system Watson is more than a quiz show smarty-pants (or smarty-motherboard, as the case may be). It is powering industry-specific solutions as the world’s businesses move to hosting their data on the cloud. Companies that have turned to Watson to solve problems in security, healthcare, and automation have seen productivity gains significantly beyond what human engineers could accomplish.
But the great-sounding story of Watson comes on the back of revenue numbers that came in under consensus in 14 of the last 20 quarters. Wall Street is waiting for evidence that IBM has truly turned a corner. As it does, we have stock that is yielding almost 4% and trading at attractive multiples. Technology is a fast-paced, quickly changing industry, and the timing of IBM’s turn is far from certain. But Big Blue has been investing in this change for years. Now we have a company with a strong balance sheet, good customer relations, and a history of success that has a solvable problem affecting the stock price – the value investor’s ideal.
by Neill Peck
Just before Christmas, President Trump scored his first major legislative victory when he signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The bill dramatically reworks the U.S. tax code and promises to immediately alter the financial lives of families across the economic spectrum.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act represents the largest one-time reduction in the corporate tax rate in U.S. history, lowering it from 35% to 21%. The 503-page bill also lowers taxes for a majority of American households, as well as for small business owners – at least until the personal tax cuts expire after eight years. The bill lowers taxes for top income earners. Prior to its passage, couples earning over $470,000 per year paid 39.6% in federal income taxes. The GOP bill drops that rate down to 37% and increases the threshold at which that rate kicks in to $600,000 for married couples. This new break for millionaires is intended to ensure that wealthy earners in highly taxed states such as New York, Connecticut, and Maryland don’t end up paying substantially higher taxes. Moving forward, taxpayers will only be able to deduct $10,000 in state, local, and property taxes.
The final tax plan lowers taxes for most Americans until 2026, since it will decrease rates for every income level. Even though the personal exemption is being scrapped going forward, the plan nearly doubles the standard deduction. It also doubles the child tax credit that parents receive to $2,000, and it increases the credit’s income threshold from $75,000 to $200,000. The bill also creates a new $500 temporary credit for non-child dependents (children 17 or older, a disabled adult child, or an ailing elderly parent). Moving forward, the new plan lowers the cap on the mortgage interest deduction on a first or second home. Now, homeowners will only be allowed to deduct interest on the debt up to $750,000, down from $1 million today. While early versions of the bill had proposed repealing deductions on medical expenses and student loan interest, these changes did not make it into the final version.
Republicans in Congress had originally wanted to do away with the estate tax entirely but ended up settling on increasing the taxable threshold from $5.5 million per person to $11 million. Going forward, a wealthy couple will be able to pass $22 million on to their heirs tax free. Small businesses are getting a big tax break under the new plan. Pass-through companies (LLCs, S corps, partnerships, etc.) will receive a 20% reduction under the new tax code.
Investors saving for retirement will not expect many changes under the new tax plan, since it makes no changes to the tax-free amounts they can put into 401(k)s, IRAs, and Roth IRAs.
by Ted Hart
The new tax plan promises to cut taxes for corporations. The companies in which we invest our clients’ funds have various options for the new-found savings.
As stated in the preceding article, the corporate tax rate will be revised from 35% to 21% this year. On a global basis, the tax reduction takes the United States from the highest in the industrialized world to the middle of the pack – quite competitive for businesses in the world’s largest economy. One of the largest benefits that has flown under the radar is the provision that allows businesses to deduct the cost of their equipment immediately. Previously, these companies were required to deduct the cost over a period of several years.
Despite the tax break, not all businesses will find the new plan beneficial. Companies will no longer be able to fully deduct their interest expenses on their debt. Instead, companies can deduct up to 30% of their EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) through 2021. Thereafter, companies will be able to deduct up to 30% of their EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes). This will ultimately hurt companies that carry a lot of debt and that have low profitability. Fortunately, a large majority of companies in our portfolios are highly profitable and have affordable amounts of debt.
What will the big multinational companies and other large U.S. businesses do with their tax savings? The answers have varied. AT&T has stated that it will increase its capital investments in the United States by $1 billion over the course of the next year. Additionally, it will provide a bonus of $1,000 to approximately 200,000 people. Boeing, the largest manufacturer of airplanes, says that it will make an additional $300 million in investments, with the idea of allocating one third of the investment to facility improvement, one third to employee training, and one third to corporate giving. In the banking sector, Wells Fargo and Fifth Third Bancorp both stated that their companies would increase their minimum wage to $15 per hour. Fifth Third also said they would reward some 3,000 employees with a $1,000 bonus.
In addition to capital investments and bonuses, many companies plan on additional share buybacks and dividend increases, which should drive investor returns higher. However, the lack of management voices claiming more capital investment implies that their production capacity is not that restrained. Furthermore, the prevalence of bonuses versus wage increases is also somewhat concerning. The lack of wage increases implies that the tax bill may not remain in effect if the Democrats gain control of the House and Senate in the 2018 Midterm Elections or if the Democrats win the White House in 2020. (Although the former is highly unlikely.) Overall, the tax overhaul should be positive for companies in our portfolios.
Tufton Capital Management is pleased to announce our firm’s involvement with the Baltimore-based charitable organization “Stocks in the Future.” This non-profit partners with schools in downtown Baltimore and provides a three-year financial literacy curriculum for middle school students in under-served communities.
“Stocks in the Future’s” mission is to develop highly motivated middle school students who are eager to learn and dedicated to attending class. The financial literacy program introduces Baltimore City students to business concepts, expansion possibilities, reasons for taking a company public, and ways to compare company performance. As students progress through the program, they can earn money in an investment account by attending school regularly and improving their grades. Their money can be used to purchase shares in a publicly traded company. When they graduate from high school, their hard work pays off, since they are able to keep the shares that they have purchased.
Tufton’s associates have been actively volunteering with the Program. Our employees have taught middle school math classes and have worked with teachers to help them better understand the Program’s curriculum.
Tufton Capital is happy to support the “Stock in the Future” organization, and we believe its incentive-based curriculum can make a difference in students’ lives.
To learn more about “Stocks in the Future’s” mission, visit the organization’s website: www.sifonline.org.
What’s On Our Minds:
There’s a saying used this time of year as folks are diligently working on sticking to their new years’ resolution. – The trick of getting ahead is getting started. This phrase is especially true for saving for retirement. Below are our 10 tips that may help reach your retirement goals. Remember, it’s never too late to start and it doesn’t hurt to save more!
1. Start now
It’s a simple fact that the earlier you begin saving for retirement, the more time your money has to earn interest and grow. If you’ve put off saving until your 30s or later, make up for lost time now by stashing away 10 to 15 percent of your salary.Plan your retirement needs
2. Plan your retirement needs
If you want to retire at 55 and travel the globe or work for as long as you can but stick close to home, how much money you need to retire is unique to you. Rather than relying on figures that suggest you’ll need 80 percent of your preretirement income to live comfortably later in life, talk with your spouse and financial advisor to settle on an amount to save that’s tailored to you.
3. Learn about and contribute to your employer’s plan
If your employer offers a tax-sheltered plan, contribute at least enough to get the employer match. Your employer can provide you with a summary plan description, which recaps your plan and vesting eligibility, as well as an individual benefits statement.
4. Consider saving “on the side”
If you don’t have access to an employer-based plan, contributing to a traditional or Roth IRA allows you to get similar tax benefits for your retirement savings. Even if you do contribute to an employer-based plan, an IRA can supplement those savings.
5. Make saving as easy as possible
Eliminate the need to move money from one account to another by setting a monthly savings goal and automating a deposit to that amount. By making savings routine, you are more likely to see your retirement nest egg grow. To help boost your regular savings, funnel any extra cash windfalls, such as from a bonus or inheritance, directly to your retirement savings.
6. Increase savings as you near retirement
Your income will likely rise with age and experience, so it makes sense to save more as you earn more. After age 50, you will also be eligible for catch-up contributions, which allow you to contribute beyond the set limit. For 401(k)s, you can contribute an extra $6,000, while for IRAs you can contribute an extra $1,000.
7. Be an active participant in your plan
Automating your retirement savings and amount doesn’t mean you should “set it and forget it.” Examine your quarterly statements to ensure you are on track to meet your goals. Can you afford to contribute more? Are your investments still appropriate? Do you need to lower your exposure to risk? By taking active control now, you take control of creating the best retirement lifestyle possible.
8. Decide on your Social Security strategy
Social Security benefits may be available at age 62, but up until age 70, your retirement benefit will increase by a fixed rate (based on your year of birth) each year you delay retirement. Waiting means you may be able to take advantage of some extra cash. If you are married, you may also be able to receive spousal benefits, which boost the amount you and your spouse receive in Social Security as a couple. To learn more, visit www.socialsecurity.gov.
9. Be a savvy investor
It’s important to be smart about not only the amount you save but also how you save. To help insulate against market swings, diversify your investments within sectors and across asset classes and geographic regions. The more intentional you are about where your assets are invested, the more secure you can feel about them.
10. Don’t touch your savings until retirement
Dipping into your retirement savings is a last resort. In addition to harsh penalties, you lose principal, which in turn depletes interest earnings and tax benefits. Also, if you switch jobs, rollover your retirement account rather than “cashing out.” Preserving your retirement savings may be difficult when funds are tight, but will benefit you when you truly need it most.
Last Week’s Highlights:
Stocks were up for the second week in a row. We have had a remarkable start to the year and major indexes are up more than 4%. Stocks have not recorded two consecutive weeks of 1% moves higher since July of 2016. Earnings season kicked off last week. Big banks reported losses due to the new tax code but had pre-announced so the loses had been baked into share prices.
Markets were closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. Along with earnings reports coming across the wire, investors will be eyeing some important economic data this week. Industrial production and capacity utilization is reported on Wednesday. Housing starts are reported on Thursday followed by consumer sentiment data on Friday.
What’s On Our Minds:
The Tufton Economics Team takes the reins this week to talk a bit about the changing shape of the American consumer. As our readers know, the stock market continues to hit new highs as corporations enjoy an increasingly business friendly environment in the US. But the consumer does not seem to be sharing in those gains. Now more than in decades, Americans’ balance sheets are looking weak: they “owe more, save less, and are poorer.”
Corporations’ earnings have steadily risen, but the median consumer hasn’t seen the gains (note that the comparison isn’t perfect: there is no “per-corporation” data like the per-capita data we have for consumers). The Economics Team will stay on the sidelines as far as the political implications of this relationship, but we would like to point out that weakening consumers are also bad for economic growth.
Last Week’s Highlights:
The new year got off to a good start, and interest rates ticked up slightly, resulting in an all-green summary chart below. Hopefully we can keep that up all year.
This week should be a relatively light one in terms of earnings and economics. We’ll be watching the weekly claims, as always. CPI and retail sales numbers come out Friday, which should help us get a better picture of the consumer economy that we talked about in the blog post.
What’s On Our Minds:
Happy New Year! By all measures, 2017 was a stellar year for stock markets around the globe. It appears the bull market continued to climb its proverbial “wall of worry”. For the first time since 2012, international stocks outperformed U.S. stocks. Domestic market indexes were no slouches though. The S&P 500 was up over 20% and the Dow Jones added 5,000 points, its largest ever point gain in a calendar year. The rally was fueled by resurgent economic growth, blockbuster corporate profits, and the promise of sweeping Republican tax cuts which should save corporate American billions of dollars.
After a great 2017, investors are likely asking, “so what does 2018 have in store?” Well, of course it is hard to predict but market experts seem to agree that the outlook for the new year is good but not a rosy as last year. Wells Fargo forecasts the U.S. economy will grow by an average of 2.5% each quarter in 2018 and 2019. As the labor market continues to tighten, wage growth and increased energy prices could start to squeeze corporate earnings, but expanding sales and lower corporate tax rates should also give earnings a boost. Meanwhile, if the economy continues to improve, the Federal Reserve plans to continue increasing interest rates.
If Wall Street’s predictions for the new year hold up and the bull market continues, it will put the economy on track for its longest expansion in decades.
Last Week’s Highlights:
Stocks were down slightly during the final week of 2017 which was shortened by the Christmas holiday. It was reported that Russian tankers have been supplying North Korea with oil in recent months which increased geopolitical worry. The minor declines experienced last week still left investors happy with significant gains experienced across the board in 2017.
Important economic data comes across the wire this week as we kick off 2018. Manufacturing purchasing managers index will be reported on Tuesday followed by vehicle sales and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting on Wednesday. On Friday, we will close out the week with December’s jobs report.
What’s On Our Minds:
The team at Tufton Capital Management wishes you a season of joy as we look forward to continued success in 2018.
Last Week’s Highlights:
Stocks were up last week as investors focused on the passage of the U.S. tax bill.
The tax bill is the largest tax cut in U.S. history for the nation’s largest companies. Starting on January 1, 2018, big businesses’ tax rates will be reduced from 35% to 21%. Republicans have argued that companies’ tax burden will be decreased one trillion dollars over the next ten years which should help the economy. Time will tell if the tax bill will accelerate economic growth.
This week, investors will be busy closing the books on 2017 which has been a strong year in equity markets. Many are wondering if we experience a “Santa Claus Rally” this year. This typically occurs when investors see a surge in the price of stocks during the last week of December though the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for it, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, and people investing their holiday bonuses.
What’s On Our Minds:
The economic team at Tufton has been thinking about employment quite a bit lately. We have a few internal reports, the first of which we’ve adapted here for our blog.
The employment rate has remained remarkably low, while wages have refused to budge. In theory, when labor is in low supply, employers will raise wages to attract talent. That increase in wages tells us that our economy is starting to heat up, and we need to be caution of above-trend growth- the kind that causes recessions. At least, that’s how it’s always happened in the past. What is different now? Our labor force is changing, in age, skill, and desires.
That is to say: not only are consumer preferences changing, but so are labor preferences, as evidenced by the below chart. The reasons for the labor force decline among young men are likely threefold: drugs, jail, and video games. The opiate epidemic has hit hard, especially in those young males who found themselves jobless. Additionally, supply has been fueled by drug companies who have pushed these drugs on doctors. Because of these and other causes, the percentage of previously-incarcerated males has risen from 1.8% in 1980 to 5.8% in 2010. Of course, this makes it harder for this segment to re-enter the workforce, and they may choose to stay on the sidelines. Finally, to the dismay of parents everywhere, it seems that many young men would rather simply stay home and play video games (see charts, from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch).
Last Week’s Highlights:
We are experiencing a bonfire Santa Claus rally this month.
Markets continued their march higher as investors continue to weigh the impacts of the tax reform deal. The S&P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Dow Jones added 1.3%. The S&P experienced a drop on Thursday when Senator Marco Rubio said he would oppose the bill if it didn’t include a larger tax credit for parents with children. On Friday, senators gave in to Rubio’s suggestions and equity markets charged to reach new all-time highs. Since the tax reform bill passed in Congress, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 3%.
As investors had expected, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%-1.5%. Janet Yellen shared an optimistic view on the economy and upgraded the Fed’s outlook on GDP growth citing the impact of corporate and personal tax cuts.
Market futures are up big to begin the week before Christmas. The House of Representatives is set to vote on the tax bill either Monday or Tuesday and Senate will vote shortly thereafter.
Important housing data will be in focus this week. New home starts and permit data will be released on Tuesday and new home sales will be reported on Friday.