The Weekly View (3/25/19)

Last Week’s Highlights:

U.S. equities ended last week lower as global growth concerns outweighed favorable news that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates at current levels. The yield curve briefly inverted for the first time since 2007, raising investors’ concerns about the state of the economy. An inverted yield curve means that long-term Treasury yields (the 10-year note in this case) are now lower than both the three-month and one-year yields. Such an inversion has been a reliable indicator of a looming recession. Disappointing European manufacturing data, along with a more dovish Federal Reserve, resulted in a 10-year Treasury yield trading at the lowest level in over a year (2.459% as of Friday’s close). For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 346.55 points, or 1.3%, to 25,502.32, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.8% to 2800.71. The tech-heavy NASDAQ lost 0.6%, closing at 7642.67. The Department of Justice told Congress on Friday that it had received the report on special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mueller found that President Trump and his campaign did not conspire with Russia, but no conclusion was drawn on whether Trump obstructed justice. Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to use the threat of a long delay to pressure the House of Commons to support her European Union exit plan fell apart. Blue jeans inventor Levi Strauss (LEVI) returned to the public markets with an IPO of $17 a share. LEVI first went public in 1971 but was again taken private in 1985. The stock soared on its opening day, rising 32% and resulting in a $8.7 billion market cap for the denim company.

Looking Ahead:

The week kicks off with an earnings report from Red Hat (RHT). Apple (AAPL) announce its plans for video- and news-subscription services at this much-anticipated corporate event. McCormick (MKC), KB Home (KB) and Cronos Group (CRON) release their quarterly financial results on Tuesday. The Census Bureau reports its new residential construction data for February – consensus estimates are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.25 million housing starts and 1.31 million building permits. Earnings reports continue on Wednesday, with numbers out from Lennar (LEN), Paychex (PAYX) and At Home Group (HOME). The Census Bureau releases the U.S. international trade balance in goods and services for January – economists forecast a $57.5 billion shortfall for the month. Accenture (ACN) hosts a conference call on Thursday to discuss earnings results. The National Association of Realtors releases its Pending Home Sales Index for February – consensus estimates call for a 0.5% rise after a 4.6% jump in January. Thursday is also opening day for Major League Baseball – play ball! The week ends with quarterly reports from BlackBerry (BB) and CarMax (KMX) on Friday. The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March – economists forecast a 61.7 reading, down from February’s 64.7. Ride-sharing company Lyft goes public on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker symbol LYFT with an estimated company valuation in the $21 – $23 billion range.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

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