The Tufton Viewpoint, Fall 2016

Greetings from Tufton Capital, where the summer heat is finally abating, the leaves are quickly changing, and—in keeping with Baltimore business etiquette—Fridays around the office are taking on a distinctly purple hue.

With the tumult of this summer’s “Brexit” ordeal now firmly in the rear view, market commentators are busy parading new boogeymen through the headlines. And in case you haven’t heard: there’s an election going on.

As a quick glance at the morning newspaper (or five minutes in front of the television) suggests, uncertainty over our country’s next president has crept into the financial sector. From corporate taxation, to industry regulation, to international trade policy and everything in between, the implications of the outcome on November 8th are keeping plenty of capital stuck on the sidelines.

To an extent, this “wait and see” approach is appropriate: as the Brexit episode adequately illustrated, divisive macro-economic events can prove troublesome to captains of industry and individual investors alike. Yet, to paraphrase the Brits themselves, our team here at Tufton Capital is taking a more measured approach to election jitters—by keeping calm, and by carrying on.

As strident fans of hard data, as opposed to political hysteria, we are encouraged by the fact that the current bout of hand-wringing in the marketplace is, from a historical perspective, entirely unremarkable. In fact, one could even go so far as to argue that 2016 is going well. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has dropped an average of 2.8% in election years such as this one, in which an incumbent does not seek re-election. So far this year, that same index is up over 6%—not too shabby, considering the sky is meant to be falling any day now!

Of course, that’s not the sort of information you’re likely to read with the mornings news. After all, positive thinking does not sell papers. But as faithful stewards of your hard-earned capital, we encourage you to remain calm, and perhaps even cautiously optimistic, as the din grows louder in the weeks ahead. No matter what happens on November 8th, we are confident that our thoughtful, time-tested, and emphatically long-term investment approach will prove fruitful through this election cycle…and through many more to come.

SHARE IT:

Comments are closed.