Last Week’s Highlights:

U.S. equities returned to their winning ways last week as stocks posted their best five day run since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 398.63 points, or 1.6%, to 25,848.87, while the S&P 500 advanced 2.9% to 2822.48. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 3.8% for the week to 7688.53. While the global economy is always on investors’ minds, macro factors were on the back burner last week as the attention was largely focused on individual stocks. The week began with news of the tragic crash of a Boeing 737 MAX 8 jet in Ethiopia. Boeing (BA) is a member of the Dow Jones, an index that calculates weighting by share price rather than market capitalization, so the stock’s price movement had an especially amplified impact on the DJIA throughout the week. Other individual names highlighting the tape included GE (GE), Tesla (TSLA), Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL). Friday was the busiest trading day so far this year, as the day marked a quarterly collision that traders call “quad witching”. This occurs when equity and index futures and options all expire on the same day. Adding to the action, dozens of S&P 500 indexes were scheduled to rebalance their holdings at the end of the day. The House of Commons took a series of Brexit votes last week after Prime Minister Theresa May returned with what she called European Union “legal concessions”. Her new Brexit plan quickly suffered another defeat in the House. The White House submitted a $4.7 trillion 2020 budget to Congress that featured cuts in safety-net and discretionary items and large additi0ns to defense and border protection.

Looking Ahead:

The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for March on Monday – expectations call for a 63 reading, up slightly from February’s 62. Marriott International (MAR) discusses earnings prospects for 2021. On Tuesday, FedEx (FDX), HD Supply Holdings (HDS) and Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) release their quarterly results. Nvidia (NVDA) holds its annual investor day in San Jose, CA. Wednesday brings financial results from General Mills (GIS) and Micron Technology (MU). Starbucks (SBUX) and Agilent Technologies (A) hold their annual stockholder meetings. The Federal Reserve is on center stage Wednesday as the FOMC announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark federal-funds rate unchanged at 2.25% to 2.5%. On Thursday, earnings reports will be released by Conagra Brands (CAG), Nike (NKE) and Darden Restaurants (DRI). The Conference Board reports its Leading Economic Index for February – consensus estimates call for a 111.5 reading, a tad bit higher than January’s 111.3. The business week ends with Tiffany (TIF) reporting quarterly financials on Friday. The Census Bureau releases wholesale inventories data for January – economists forecast a 0.3% decline after a 1.1% jump in December.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Major U.S. equity markets closed out their worst week since December, largely due to increasing worries about slowing economic growth around the globe. Investors grew more concerned about the fate of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China, and Thursday’s decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to deploy additional stimulus contributed to global economic concerns. Domestically, Labor Department data released on Friday showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 20,000 in February, falling well short of economists’ expectations for 180,000 new jobs. The economic news wasn’t all gloomy, however, as the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8% from 4% the preceding month, while wages grew 3.4% from a year earlier – the strongest pace since April of 2009. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 576.08 points, or 0.2%, to 25,450.24, while the S&P 500 declined 2.2% to 2743.07. The tech-heavy NASDAQ led the weekly declines, closing down 2.5% to 7408.14. The markets, however, still sit on nice gains for the year, with both the Dow and S&P still up over 9% for 2019. Saturday marked the 3,653rd day since domestic markets began their bull run in the wake of the financial crisis. The S&P 500 index has returned 400% (including reinvested dividends) since the March 9, 2009 market bottom.

Looking Ahead:

Earnings season winds down with several financial reports this week, including ADT (ADT), Stitch Fix (SFIX) and Coupa Software (COUP) on Monday. The Census Bureau reports retail sales data for January – economists forecast a flat reading after a 1.2% decline in December. Excluding autos, retail sales are seen rising 0.2% after falling 1.8% in December. Try to stay awake on Monday, as it’s National Napping Day. The U.K.’s House of Commons will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal on Tuesday, as the deadline for Britain’s exit looms. Dick’s Sporting Good (DKS) releases its quarterly earnings results. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports its producer price index (PPI) for February – economists forecast a 0.2% rise after a 0.1% decline in January. Adobe (ADBE), Broadcom (AVGO) and Dollar General (DG) release their financials on Thursday. The Census Bureau announces new-home sales data for January – expectations are for an annual rate of 615,000, down from December’s 621,000 print. The business week ends with Friday’s report by the Bank of Japan of its monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to leave its key interest rate at negative 0.1%.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Despite a bumpy week, U.S. equity markets are off to their best start to a year in three decades, closing out February with gains of roughly 3%. Gains year-to-date have lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 to within 4.3% of their records (the indices are up 11.6% and 11.8%, respectively, for the year). For this past week, the DJIA slipped 5.49 points, or 0.02%, to 26,026.32, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.39% to 2803.69. The tech-heavy NASDAQ edged up 0.90% for the week to 7595.35. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress, reiterating that the Fed was close to reducing its balance sheet. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 2.6% for the fourth-quarter of 2018, slightly beating estimates, and full-year GDP was 2.9%. The White House announced that it would delay the March 1st trade deadline for additional tariffs on Chinese goods as negotiations progressed. Michael Cohen’s testimony and the U.S.-North Korea summit in Vietnam generated plenty of headlines but few market implications.

Looking Ahead:

Earnings season nears its end with reports from Salesforce.com (CRM) and Ctrip.com (CTRP) on Monday. The Census Bureau reports construction spending data for December – analysts forecast a 0.3% gain after a 0.8% rise in November. Tuesday is Mardi Gras – the party starts with financial reports from Ciena (CIEN), Ross Stores (ROST), Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS). The Census Bureau is back with its new-home sales data for December – expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units, down from 657,000 in November. On Ash Wednesday, earnings reports will be released by Dollar Tree (DLTR), Brown-Forman (BF) and Guidewire Software (GWRE). Estee Lauder (EL) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) host investor days in New York. Wednesday is also National Oreo Day for the sweet tooths out there. On Thursday, Costco Wholesale (COST), Kroger (KR) and H&R Block (HRB) report their earnings for the past quarter. The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision – the bank is widely expected to keep its key interest rate at negative 0.4% due to falling growth projections for the euro zone. The business week ends with Vail Resorts (MTN) releasing its financial results.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

U.S. equity markets extended their winning streak to nine consecutive weeks and are on track for their largest early-year advance in three decades. A more flexible approach to monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, a stronger-than-expected corporate earnings season and easing U.S.-China trade tensions have helped fuel investor enthusiasm. For this past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 148.62 points, or 0.57%, to 26,031.81, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.61% to 2792.67. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 0.74% for the week to 7527.54. The DJIA and S&P 500 indexes are now sitting at 3% and 4.7%, respectively, below last year’s all-time highs. Sixteen states joined to file a suit opposing President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency over the Southern border. These states argue that the move violates the constitutional provision that Congress appropriates funds. House Democrats also prepared to vote on a resolution opposing the step. Trouble continued in Venezuela, as Trump threatened the country’s military that it would “lose everything” if it remained loyal to President Maduro. Talks of a busy year for IPOs continued, as ride-hailing company Lyft and on-line image-search operator Pinterest filed to possibly go public in the coming months. The much anticipated (at least in Tufton’s offices) annual letter from Warren Buffett came out Saturday morning. Topics ranged from Berkshire Hathaway’s frustration with finding good “elephant-sized acquisitions” to new accounting rules. Importantly, Buffett remains sanguine about the health of the U.S. economy.  Looking Ahead:

Etsy (ETSY), Mosaic (MOS) and Shake Shack (SHAK) report quarterly results on Monday. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas releases its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for February – forecasters call for a 4.5 reading, well above January’s 1.0 print. Earnings continue on Tuesday, as we’ll see numbers from Home Depot (HD), Mylan (MYL), Macy’s (M) and Discovery (DFS). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver the central bank’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report and provide testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for February – consensus estimates are for a 125 reading, slightly higher than January’s. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) host their 2019 investor days. On Wednesday, earnings reports are due from American Tower (AMT), Best Buy (BBY), Campbell Soup (CPB) and Lowe’s (LOW). Chairman Powell is back in action, as he’ll appear before the House Financial Services Committee.  Edison International (EIX), Nordstrom (JWN) and Gap (GPS) report financials on Thursday. The day also brings preliminary fourth quarter U.S. GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis – consensus estimates are for 2.5% growth, down from the third quarter’s 3.4%. Friday is the first day of March and brings the end of the 90-day negotiating period agreed upon by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump has hinted that the deadline could be extended. The day also brings earnings results from Marriott International (MAR), Foot Locker (FL) and Dentsply Sirona (XRAY).

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

U.S. equity markets continued moving higher, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) completed its eighth-straight winning week. Rising optimism about talks with China, combined with a newly accommodative Federal Reserve, have helped push domestic stock markets higher by over 10% since the year began. For this past week, the DJIA rose 776.92 points, or 3.1%, to 25,883.25, while the S&P 500 advanced 2.5% to 2775.60. The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 2.4% for the week to 7472.41. The House and Senate agreed to a compromise on border security, hoping to avoid another government shutdown.  Although President Trump signed the funding bills on Friday, he also declared a “national emergency” and seeks to find funds elsewhere for his wall. Earnings season continued last week, and two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported their fourth-quarter results so far. Earnings are on track to have grown 13% from a year ago, marking the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Amazon.com (AMZN) pulled out of its HQ2 New York plan after being hit by opposition from local groups and politicians.

Looking Ahead:

U.S and Canadian financial markets are closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day and Family Day, respectively. On Tuesday, earnings season powers on with 46 S&P 500 components releasing financials this week.  Tuesday’s earnings include results from Walmart (WMT), Noble Energy (NBL) and Medtronic (MDT). The National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for February – economists expect a 60 reading, up from January’s 58. On Wednesday, we’ll see more fourth-quarter numbers from GoDaddy (GDDY), Analog Devices (ADI), CVS Health (CVS) and Entergy (ETR). Thursday brings the Census Bureau release of its Advance Report on Durable Goods. Expectations call for December durable-goods orders to be up 1.7% after rising 0.7% in November. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Zillow Group (Z) and Hormel Foods (HRL) report earnings.  On Friday, the University of Chicago hosts its annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. AutoNation (AN), Wayfair (W) and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) are among the companies reporting financials Friday. Warren Buffett’s eagerly awaited annual shareholder letter will be released by Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Strong quarterly earnings results, led largely by several technology companies, fueled an early-week rally in U.S stock markets. The fun was short-lived, however, as trade and global economic worries weighed on equities later in the week. Despite this volatility, the main U.S. indices were essentially flat for the week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.17% and the S&P 500 was up just 0.05%. The technology-heavy NASDAQ ended 0.47% higher, led largely by solid weekly performances from Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL). Investors remained focused on U.S. trade negotiations with China as well as reports of soft economic data coming out of Europe. Regional banks BB&T (BBT) and SunTrust (STI) announced their merger in a $28 billion all-stock deal, the largest since 2009.  Earnings season continued, highlighted by Google-parent Alphabet (GOOG) reporting its fourth quarter results.  While GOOG reported sales and earnings that exceeded expectations, the stock slipped as investors worried about higher costs and lower margins. Walt Disney (DIS) also beat analysts’ forecasts, as the company launched the Disney+ streaming service and completed the acquisition of 21^st Century Fox.

Looking Ahead:

The week begins with earnings results from Loews Corp. (L), Brighthouse Financial (BHF) and Restaurant Brands (QSR) on Monday.  Japan’s financial markets are closed for National Foundation Day. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for December on Tuesday. Economists forecast a seven million reading, up from November’s 6.9 million. Earnings will be released by Under Armour (UA), Martin Marietta Material (MLM) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI).  On Wednesday, the BLS reports the consumer price index for January – consensus estimates call for a year-over-year rise of 1.5%, down from December’s 1.9%. Reporting season continues, with results coming from Cisco Systems (CSCO), American International Group (AIG) and Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT).  The Census Bureau reports data on business inventories for November on Thursday.  Earning will be released by Applied Materials (AMAT), CBS (CBS), Waste Management (WM) and Zoetis (ZTS).  The week ends with financial results from Deere (DE) and Newell Brands (NWL).  The BLS reports its export and import data for January – prices are expected to decline by 0.2% for both exports and imports.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve dominated business headlines last week, leading to continued strength for U.S. equities.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 326.69 points, or 1.3%, to 25,063.89, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.6% to 2706.53.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 1.4% for the week to 7263.87.  The Dow was up 7.2% last month, its best January since 1989.  Last week saw a large batch of earnings results, providing a continued tailwind to U.S. equities.  Nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500 have posted results so far, with 70% surpassing analyst expectations.  Companies in the index are on track to post year-over-year earnings growth of 12%, marking the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings increases.  On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the case for raising interest rates “has weakened somewhat”, easing concerns about tighter monetary policy in the U.S.  Results from the Labor Department on Friday exceeded expectations as U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a strong 304,000 in January, further evidence of a strong economy.  The New England Patriots defeated the L.A. Rams 13-3 in the lowest-scoring game in Super Bowl history, leading the Pats to yet another Lombardi Trophy.     

Looking Ahead:

Fourth-quarter earnings season remains in full swing, with 90 S&P 500 components reporting financial results this week.  Monday brings earnings reports from Google-parent Alphabet (GOOG), Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Clorox (CLX).  The Census Bureau releases its final Durable Goods report for November, with economists forecasting a 1.5% rise after falling 4.3% in October.  Monday is also World Cancer Day.  Tuesday begins the Chinese New Year, with many stock markets closing across Asia in observance of the start of the Year of the Pig.  We’ll see earnings from Chubb (CB), Walt Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIA) and Becton Dickinson (BDX).  The State of the Union will take place Tuesday night.  Wednesday includes financial results from Boston Scientific (BSX), General Motors (GM), MetLife (MET) and Eli Lilly (LLY).  The Census Bureau releases its Trade Balance in Goods and Services for November – the estimate is for a deficit of $54 billion.  The Bank of England announces its monetary policy decision on Thursday, with the central bank expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%.  Earnings releases are expected from Kellogg (K), Twitter (TWTR), Yum! Brands (YUM) and Fiserv (FISV).  The busy week ends with financial results from Exelon (EXC), Hasbro (HAS) and Phillips 66 (PSX).

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

U.S. equities continued their winning ways last week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 710.40 points, or 3%, to 24,706.35, while the S&P 500 advanced 2.9% to 2670.71.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 2.7% for the week to 7157.23.  The Dow is now up 5.9% in 2019, its best start to a year since 1997, and the S&P has gained 6.6%, its best start since 1987.  Investor appetites for stocks continued as data suggesting that the U.S. economy is still growing and decreased tension in trade talks with China have increased market optimism.  Perhaps more importantly, corporate earnings are providing a tailwind to U.S. equities – 55 companies in the S&P 500 have posted their fourth-quarter results, with 76% of the earnings coming in ahead of expectations.  The government shutdown dragged on.  President Trump remained unyielding, while the House voted for two bills that would reopen the government that then stalled in the GOP-controlled Senate.  British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan came up for a vote in the House of Commons and was handily defeated, one of the worst losses for a British leader since the 1920s.  The Los Angeles Rams (NFC) and New England Patriots (AFC) won their playoff games and will meet each other in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on February 3^rd.

Looking Ahead:

U.S. markets are closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.  Earning season continues on Tuesday with reports from Capital One (COF), Halliburton (HAL), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), IBM (IBM) and Travelers (TRV).  The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales data for December (analysts forecast a 5.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from November’s 5.3 million).  Wednesday is busy with more earnings, including results from Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Comcast (CMCSA), Ford (F), Proctor & Gamble (PG) and Texas Instruments (TXN).  The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency reports its House Price Index for November.  On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City releases its Manufacturing Survey for January.  Expectations are for a three reading, equal to December’s, which was the lowest in over two years, reflecting slowing manufacturing activity in the region.  Earnings continue with numbers from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Intel (INTC), Starbucks (SBUX) and Union Pacific (UNP).  The busy week concludes with earnings releases from AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), D.R. Horton (DHI) and Synchrony Financial (SYF).

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

U.S. equities continued their winning ways last week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 562.79 points, or 2.4%, to 23,995.95, while the S&P 500 advanced 2.5% to 2596.26.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 3.5% for the week to 6971.48, capping off its largest three-week increase since 2011.  Investor appetites for stocks have returned recently as data suggesting that the U.S. economy is still growing and a rebound in energy prices have increased market optimism.  Indications following three days of U.S.-China trade talk in Beijing suggested that both sides are eager for a peaceful resolution, adding to last week’s upbeat tone.  The government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history, staggered on.  Democrats continued to block President Trump’s demands for wall money, while he threatened to veto any funding bill without it.  Amazon.com (AMZN) became the world’s most valuable company for the first time, replacing Microsoft (MSFT) on Monday, when AMZN’s market cap hit $797 billion.

Looking Ahead:

Earning season unofficially kicks off on Monday with reports from the major U.S. banks.  Citigroup (C) is the first up, reporting its fourth-quarter numbers before the market open.  Tuesday is packed with more earnings, as we’ll see reports from Delta Air Lines (DAL), Wells Fargo (WFC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and First Republic Bank (FRC).  British lawmakers vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index (PPI) for December (consensus estimates call for a slight decline of 0.1%).  Wednesday is busy with more earnings, including results from Bank of America (BAC), BlackRock (BLK), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), PNC Financial (PNC) and Alcoa (AA).  On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia releases its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for January.  Expectations are for a 10 reading, up from December’s 9.1, which was the lowest since August of 2016.  Earnings continue with numbers from American Express (AXP), BB&T (BBT), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Netflix (NFLX).  The busy week concludes with the release of the Consumer Sentiment Index for January and earnings releases from Kansas City Southern (KSU), State Street (STT) and SunTrust Banks (STI).

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Last week, the broad stock market indices rose as fears of a recession faded. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated he would ease on raising interest rates at a gradual pace, leading to a market rally. The S&P 500 increased 1.9% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq bounced 2.3% and the Russell 2000, representing small-capitalization companies, rose 3.2%. Year-to-date, all major indices are in the green!

On the economic front, last week was all about Friday’s job report. Growth in Private Nonfarm Payroll jobs surged 301,000 in December versus a Wall Street estimate of 177,500. Average Hourly Earnings rose 3.2.% year-over-year surpassing estimated growth of 3.0%. The Unemployment Rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7% in November, however, the Labor Force Participate Rate rose to the highest level since September of 2017, standing at 63.1%.

Looking Ahead:

This week, several economic releases will be delayed due to the Government Shutdown. These would include, but are not limited to, New Home Sales, Construction Spending, and Light Vehicle Sales. The Trade Balance should be released on Tuesday, but could face a delay due to the fact that it is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inflation data should be released on Friday. Wall Street is expecting growth of inflation to be about 2.2% year-over-year, excluding food and energy. Next week, fourth quarter earnings season will kick off, mostly lead by the big banks.

The Tufton Capital Team thanks you for your continued support!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Bah Humbug!  U.S. equities suffered their worst weekly loss of the year, with major indices now firmly in correction territory and the tech-heavy NASDAQ in a bear market (down 20% from its peak).  Stocks started last week lower but stabilized going into the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting meeting.  Stocks began Wednesday on a positive note but plunged after the Fed announced a rate increase and pointed towards two more hikes next year. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbled 6.87%, to 22,445.37, while the S&P 500 decreased 7.05%, to 2416.58.  The NASDAQ fell 8.36% for the week to 6332.99.  Oil prices also fell for the week.

Looking Ahead:

U.S. markets close early on Monday for Christmas Eve, with the stock exchanges closing at 1pm and the bond markets at 2pm.  Federal employees have an extra vacation day this year, as President Trump signed an executive order last Tuesday giving them Christmas Eve off.  Tuesday is Christmas Day – Merry Merry!  Markets in many countries including England, Canada and Australia are closed on Wednesday in observance of Boxing Day.  On Thursday, the Department of Labor reports initial claims for the week ending December 22^nd – economists forecast 215,000 claims, a slight increase from the previous week.  Friday brings more economic reports, including data from the Institute for Supply Management and the Census Bureau.

The Tufton Capital Team wishes you and your families a Merry Christmas and a very Happy Holiday!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Last week began on a high note for U.S. equities, as low inflation numbers and China’s seeming concessions on trade helped move the market a bit higher through mid-week.  The mood, however, turned sour by Friday, with news that the European Central Bank would cease its bond-buying program.  This, combined with falling oil prices and slower economic data, led to another large selloff on Friday.  For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 1.18%, to 24,100.51, while the S&P 500 decreased 1.26% to 2599.95.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ slipped 0.84% for the week to 6910.66.  Corporate highlights included news Friday on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a member of the DJIA, with a Reuters report that the company had known that its talc and baby powder contained small amounts of asbestos.  JNJ shares fell 10% for the day on this report.  Internationally, England’s Prime Minister Theresa May delayed a House of Commons vote on the draft treaty for the U.K. to leave the European Union.  On Wednesday, she survived a no-confidence vote, 200-117.  Protests continued in France by the “yellow vest” movement, leading President Macron to promise tax cuts and a higher minimum wage.

Looking Ahead:

The week begins with Oracle (ORCL) reporting its fiscal second-quarter results.  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey, with Economists forecasting a reading of 20.2 for December (down from last month’s 23.3 reading).  Merriam-Webster will also announce its Word of the Year Monday.  The main focus for the week begins Tuesday, as the Fed meeting begins.  We’ll also see quarterly results from Darden Restaurants (DRI), Micron Technology (MU) and FedEx (FDX).  The Fed ends its meeting on Wednesday and present its “dot plot” on future interest rate changes.  The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 0.25%.  Investors will be looking very carefully for changes in forward guidance and potential signals that the U.S. central bank might be slowing down the pace of rate hikes next year.  Thursday brings earnings results from Accenture (ACN), Blackberry (BB), Conagra (CAG) and Nike (NKE).  The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England announce interest rate decisions that day.  Friday is quadruple witching day, when index futures, index options, stock futures and stock options simultaneously expire.  Winter officially begins on Friday.

The Tufton Capital Team wishes you a very Happy Holiday!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Recession fears took center stage on Wall Street, leading to a tough week for equity investors. The yield curve showed signs of inversion, an indicator of a possible economic slowdown, as the gap between short-term and long-term treasury yields narrowed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 4.5%, the S&P 500 fell 4.6%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 4.93%. The Russell 2000, which contains small capitalization stocks, fell the most, declining 5.56% for the week. On the economic-front, Construction Spending declined 0.1% in October versus estimates for 0.4% growth. Domestic Auto Sales also came in below consensus, with 4 million vehicles being reported. Friday was “Jobs Day” as Nonfarm Payroll Jobs rose 155,000 in the month of November. Wall Street was estimating 196,000. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2%, coming in below the estimate of 0.3% growth. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 3.7%.

Looking Ahead:

Earnings season is winding down for the largest companies in the market. A few retail names will report this week. On Tuesday, the footwear distributor DSW Inc. (DSW) releases earnings before the opening bell. After the market closes, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) will provide its quarterly results. Several cloud providers will also report this week, including Adobe (ADBE) after the bell on Thursday.

The economics calendar is a busy one this week, and inflation levels will be on investors’ minds. Growth of the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Tuesday. Wall Street is estimating that growth was essentially flat month-over-month due to the decline in gasoline prices. On Wednesday, results from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. As with expectations for PPI results, investors believe that growth will be flat month-over-month. Consensus estimates reflect an inflation reading that rose 2.2% year-over-year, which is right around the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. On Friday, data on Retail Sales will be released. Investors are expecting growth of 0.2% for the month of November.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply last week, initially helped by Black Friday and Cyber Monday holiday sales reports.  Things got really exciting on Wednesday when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that interest rates are “just below neutral”, signaling to investors that fewer rate hikes may be on the horizon.  Powell’s dovish tone resulted in stocks and bonds rallying, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below 3%, its lowest level in over 10 weeks.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 1252 points, or 5.16%, to 25,538.46, while the S&P 500 increased 4.85% to 2760.16.  The beaten-down tech-heavy NASDAQ soared 5.64% for the week to 7330.54.  General Motors (GM) announced plans to stop making some models, which will result in nearly 15,000 job cuts.  The European Union approved the draft Brexit plan negotiated by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May.  An agreement is now needed from Parliament, which may be more challenging.  Tariff rhetoric continued throughout last week, as President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping continued their threats ahead of the G20 meeting (more about that below).

Looking Ahead:

G20 trade talks over the weekend in Buenos Aires resulted in a trade truce between China and the U.S., setting the stage for a powerful market rally to start the week.  The deal was greeted with relief as concerns over a new Cold War between the two largest economies abated.  On Monday, we’ll see earnings from Finisar (FNSR), and Ford Motor (F) reports U.S. sales data for November.  The Institute for Supply Management releases its Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, with expectations calling for a 57.5 reading.  Tuesday is a busy one for earnings, as we’ll see results from AutoZone (AZO), Dollar General (DG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Toll Brother (TOL).  Wednesday has been declared a Federal Holiday in honor of the 41st President of the United States, George H.W. Bush.  Markets will be closed that day.  Wednesday also brings earnings from H&R Block (HRB) and Brown-Forman (BF), and ADP releases its National Employment Report for November (expectations call for a 200,000 gain in private-sector employment after adding 227,000 jobs in October). On Thursday, OPEC and several of its allies will meet in Vienna to discuss possible production cuts for 2019.  We wrap up the week with earnings from Vail Resorts (MTN).  Also on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its employment report for November.  Estimates call for an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 200,000 after jumping 250,000 in October.

The Tufton Capital Team hopes that you have a wonderful week!

Last Week’s Highlights:

Last week’s trading activity was shortened due to the Thanksgiving holiday. There were only three and a half days of trading, as the market was closed Thursday and open until 1 PM on Friday. Nevertheless, the major indices were on the move as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.4%, the S&P 500 fell 3.8% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ declined 4.3%. The Dow Jones, which is a price-weighted index, was weighed down by some of its largest components, including Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA) and Goldman Sachs (GS). In addition to these stocks, the S&P 500 was also affected by a 3% decline in the energy sector as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped nearly 8% on Friday, closing at about $50 per barrel. WTI is now off 35% from a 4-year high of $77 per barrel set this past June. Energy investors have growing concerns about oversupply, declining demand and slowing global growth.

On the economic-front, Building Permits and Housing Starts results for October were released on Tuesday, each coming in around consensus estimates. There were 1.263 million Building Permits filed in October. As the Federal Reserve has continued to raise rates, the trend has been downward since the 10-year high of 1.3 million set in May. Housing starts were also about 1.2 million in October and slightly up from the 9-month low set in June.

Looking Ahead:

Earnings season continues to wind down this week, as most companies in the S&P have reported. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) and Salesforce (CRM) will report on Tuesday. Retail will be back in focus on Wednesday when Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) and Tiffany & Co (TIF) report before the opening bell. La-Z-Boy (LZB) will report after the market closes. On Thursday, Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) will release their quarterly results.

Housing will be on the minds of investors again this week with the S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index being released on Tuesday. Wall Street is expecting growth of 0.3% month-over-month. Information on New Homes Sales and Pending Homes will be provided to Wall Street on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting will also be in focus on Thursday.