By: Chad Meyer, CFA
With class officially back in session, it is perhaps fitting to greet fall with the words of an author familiar to most every American student. “October,” wrote Mark Twain, “is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
As the air grows cooler and the daylight hours grow shorter, the dreams of the boys of summer have once again been dashed. For the second consecutive year, the young hopefuls of Camden Yards suffered an early exit from the American League Wild Card series, scoring just one run over two games. The same, however, cannot be said for the U.S. stock market. Its winning streak continues following robust third quarter results. The broad market delivered a total return of 5.89%, bringing the year-to-date total to 22.08%. While the market is short of the 30% returns delivered in 1997, it has still managed returns greater than 20% throughout the first three quarters of the year. Alas, the Orioles won the American League East in 1997, but the Cleveland Indians clinched the pennant and advanced to the World Series. (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
Eli Lilly and Company (Ticker: LLY) discovers, develops and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. The company was founded in 1876 and went public in 1923. LLY is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana and has a rich history of developing many important drugs. In the 1920s, they were the first company to mass-produce insulin, and in the 1940s they were the first company to mass-produce penicillin. In the 1980s they introduced Prozac for mental health conditions. (more…)
By: Alex Olshanskiy
On September 18, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Open Market Committee made headlines by announcing a rate cut that exceeded market expectations. This decision, long anticipated and hotly debated throughout 2024, is being viewed as a potential catalyst for significant movements in both interest rates and stock prices. (more…)
By: Chad Meyer, CFA
With the fireworks long faded and the bunting stowed away, the high holiday of summer has come and gone. But if the party is over, a question now looms large. Who’s going to tell that to the American stock market? (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
The second quarter of 2024 extended the bull market run. The Standard & Poor’s 500 delivered a total return of 4.28%. For the year, the index is up 15.4%, and it is up 55% following the 21% bear market decline experienced in the first nine months of 2022. Unlike the widespread price appreciation in the first quarter, the second quarter was a repeat of calendar year 2023 with a very small select group of stocks, most tied to the Artificial Intelligence boom, driving most of the performance. Only three of the eleven index sectors outperformed the broad index during the quarter. Utility stocks finally joined the party when investors realized that all the AI computing power will take a lot of energy. Year-to-date, only two sectors have outperformed. As was the case in 2023, diversification has not been rewarded, and the equally weighted S&P 500 declined by 2.6% in the quarter. Artificial Intelligence stocks have sucked all the oxygen out of the market. (more…)
By: Barb Rishel
The dog days of summer are upon us, and I find myself seeking out cool temperatures wherever I can find them – indoors or outdoors, mostly indoors! I am especially grateful for the genius of Willis Havilland Carrier, an engineer by trade who invented air conditioning. Carrier installed his new product, named the “Apparatus for Treating Air” in a printing plant in Brooklyn, New York in 1902, and soon, numerous cotton and textile mills across the country found an increase in productivity wherever Carrier’s “air conditioners” were installed. Industrial companies all over the world wanted to equip their factories and mills with cooling products, and the Carrier Engineering Corporation was established in 1915. Even today, almost half of Carrier’s sales are from international customers. (more…)
By: Alex Olshanskiy
Devices, machines and systems are rapidly evolving towards greater intelligence. In recent years, the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a defining global force reshaping industries and investment landscapes. This transformative technology not only revolutionizes how businesses operate but also presents compelling opportunities for growth and innovation within our investment portfolios. (more…)
By: Chad Meyer, CFA
In a market that can be difficult to anticipate, there’s a simple pleasure to seeing spring arrive right on time. And if the early April showers outside our office are any indication, it would seem that May is planning to make a colorful entrance, indeed. (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
Strong fourth quarter momentum carried through to the first quarter resulting in robust gains for the stock market. The Standard & Poor’s 500 delivered a total return of 10.56%, and unlike last year, price appreciation was more widespread. Five of the eleven index sectors outperformed the broad index and only one sector, real estate, posted a negative total return. The stock market stood in sharp contrast to the bond market. Interest rates moved higher across the yield curve and bond prices fell. The S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond index, an index that measures the investment grade U.S. fixed income market including U.S. treasuries, quasi-governments, corporates, covered bonds and residential mortgage pass-throughs, posted a total return of -0.56%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed from 3.9% to 4.3%. (more…)
By: Scott Murphy
Amazon.com (AMZN), a broadly owned stock in our core portfolios, was recently anointed as the newest member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). As one of the largest publicly traded companies, one could argue this was long overdue. The S&P Dow Jones indices, which manages this thirty-stock benchmark, said the changes were prompted by Walmart’s (WMT) 3-for-1 stock split, which became effective on February 26, 2024. Amazon replaced Walgreens Boot Alliance (WBA) as one of the thirty stocks in the index. (more…)
By: Alex Olshanskiy
Automatic Data Processing, J.P. Morgan and Microsoft share a common trait. All three are trophy companies. In the intricate art of constructing an equity portfolio, Tufton Capital categorizes companies into three distinct groups: trophy, economically sensitive and special opportunities. Among these, trophy companies occupy a special pedestal, serving as the bedrock of stability and long-term growth potential. With its established market dominance, proven profitability and enduring management excellence, trophy companies stand as the cornerstone of strategic investment portfolios. An exploration of the essence of a trophy company provides our clients with an insight into the advantages of these companies in a diversified portfolio. These investments offer the potential for capital appreciation while reducing downside risk. (more…)
By: Chad Meyer, CFA
“May you live in interesting times.” Purportedly Chinese in origin, this cryptic maxim has been alternately interpreted as both a blessing and a curse. In that regard, it should strike a familiar note with American investors. As this note “goes to press,” the country’s major news outlets are allocating equal front-page real estate to interest rate predictions (when will the Fed “ease up”), to campaign efforts for a probable Biden vs. Trump rematch and to a foreign policy landscape with uncertainty and sadness spanning from the Middle East to Ukraine. Blessing or curse, there is no denying that these are “interesting times.” (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
The fourth quarter provided excellent returns for the equity and credit markets. Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index gained 11.7% in the quarter and closed the year with a total return of 26.3%. The yield on the 10-year United States Treasury note fell from 4.57% at the beginning of the quarter to 3.88%. The drop in yields proved to be a strong catalyst for the surging stock market. (more…)
By: Alex Olshanskiy
Chevron (ticker: CVX) is the second-largest integrated oil & gas company in the United States. Only Exxon Mobil Corporation (ticker: XOM) is larger. Chevron’s two largest business segments are exploration and production (upstream) and refining, marketing and transportation (downstream). (more…)
