By: Chad Meyer, CFA

As the temperature finally drops, the landscape subtly shifts, and children everywhere resignedly dig out their real shoes and dust off their textbooks, it’s difficult not to take pleasure in the perennial change that autumn brings. After all, and as anyone who’s watched more seasons pass than they care to admit knows, this brand of change—the predictable kind—doesn’t really count as change at all. Instead, it represents a keeping of plans and all the comforts that come with knowing the world is still spinning right on schedule.

Of course, in an autumn like this one, even the most optimistic among us could be forgiven for suspecting that there may be a different sort of change afoot—and that whatever “schedule” once reigned is now subject to revision with very little notice. A glance at the evening news suggests that our country is plainly on the brink of dramatic and unpredictable change on multiple fronts. From the political debates rocking our national dialogue, to Hurricane Ian rocking our nation’s shores, and to the ongoing despair in Ukraine, stability appears to be a commodity that grows scarcer in America by the day.

Nor is the stock market bucking the trend. As hordes of market and news commentators will eagerly attest, inflation has arrived in force, and the capital markets are feeling its impact. To that point, let me be clear. This was another bad quarter in the stock market, with said inflation, rising interest rates and the specter of an economic downturn all contributing to total return declines in the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq of 7.1%, 5.9% and 4.8%, respectively. This level of performance and the high volatility that attended to it has, in some circles, given rise to the anxiety that perhaps equity markets might not be the place to be.

Put simply, Mr. Market has seen all this before. For the last two hundred years, while America has faced conflicts and crises of every ilk, at home and abroad, the U.S. stock market has quietly chugged along (with zigs and zags along the way) as one of the most reliable wealth creation vehicles in the history of mankind. And at the risk of sounding old-fashioned, we at Tufton Capital tend to believe it’s going to keep chugging in the long term, no matter how much the wind is howling these days outside our door.

In the pages ahead, you’ll find a discussion of value investing in an inflationary environment written by a new member of the Tufton Team. We also offer up some general portfolio updates and current market insights. We hope this content reflects the direction that has guided our firm through over two decades of market cycles: broad attunement to market forces and deep attention to our clients’ interests. In a world that changes by the minute, we thank you for the opportunity to protect and grow your capital and remain honored by the trust you’ve placed in us.