By: Chad Meyer, CFA

In a market that can be difficult to anticipate, there’s a simple pleasure to seeing spring arrive right on time. And if the early April showers outside our office are any indication, it would seem that May is planning to make a colorful entrance, indeed.

Of course, encouraging though the view from our window may be, rest assured that your team of investment professionals remains focused on an entirely different landscape. In the first three months of 2024, as the Fed mulled over lowering rates and forecasters fretted over policy, the S&P 500 rose by roughly 10%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 5%. Together, these indices contributed to the best first quarter for American equities in five years, leading to record highs across the board.

To some, these gains signal clear skies—and good times—ahead. In a recent poll survey of C-suite sentiment, JP Morgan Chase found that over three quarters of executives expect the good times to keep on going! On Wall Street, where marquee brands like Reddit and Birkenstock have confidently stepped out into the public markets, the feeling appears to be mutual. As a well-known investment strategist pithily put it in a March presentation to clients: “It feels like…it’s going to get growthier.”

But as the equity markets continue their climb, some participants are less inclined to believe that hope and growth spring eternal. Nor are their fears without warrant. Casting aside the financial media’s more frivolous concerns, the case for treading thoughtfully in the days ahead remains strong. Given the historically low levels of volatility that attended to this quarter’s growth, we believe that large swaths of investment capital remain stuck on the sidelines, still waiting for the dust to settle around American policy. And as both physicists and economists will attest, the more pent-up energy a system contains, the more cause to handle it with care.

I’m pleased to report that your Tufton Capital advisors are handling the trust you have placed in us with the utmost of care. Since 1995, our firm has favored principled investing over economic forecasting, with the intent of protecting and growing client capital regardless of broader market conditions. Historically, we believe this “all-weather” approach has kept our clients in good stead. As the May flowers begin to bloom, in a period of prolonged uncertainty, we expect it to do more of the same.

In the pages ahead, you’ll find a brief overview of our current market thoughts, including a timely discussion of one of our firm’s top holdings, Amazon.com (AMZN). Should you wish to discuss these or any other matters related to your portfolio, we sincerely hope you won’t hesitate to pick up the phone and give us a call. We remain at your service and look forward to continuing to provide you, our valued client, with the level of attention, insight and performance you have come to expect—no matter what comes next around the bend.