The Tufton Viewpoint, Summer 2021
With the fireworks long faded and the bunting stowed away, the high holiday of summer has come and gone. But if the party is over, a question now looms large. Who’s going to tell that to the American stock market?
For starters, let me once again begin with what matters most – your family’s health. In these humbling and unprecedented times, one cannot help but be reminded of life’s true priorities. As vaccines are widely available and a true “reopening” seems to be here, it is my sincere hope that this letter finds you and your loved ones in good stead.
With that bit of sentiment out of the way – onto the market! For all of the talk of stormy seas throughout the Covid-19 era, the story of 2021 has turned out to be one of decidedly smooth sailing. In the first six months of the year, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose by double-digit percentages on the heels of last year’s solid returns. Over on the NASDAQ, where high technology (and high publicity) business models reign supreme, the good fortune rolled in as well. Up over 14% since the year began, this index continued to chug along as the “FAANG” gang once again led the charge. A few weeks back, while all three indices breached or skirted all-time highs, the VIX (the measure of fear in the market) approached a twenty-year low. Just like those 4th of July fireworks, the year has certainly begun with a “bang”.
In frothy times like these, you may notice that the notion of all investments being good investments tends to gain traction, and as the saying goes, “a rising tide lifts all boats.” And yet, digging into the data, we find that the case for careful asset selection – as opposed to “spraying and praying” – remains more compelling than ever. This is evident in a survey of the season’s IPO schedule, in which hotly anticipated offerings such as Bumble and Robinhood may prove better at marketing their online dating and brokerage services than rewarding their shareholders.
Perhaps more importantly, it’s evident in many of the market’s success stories. Consider, for instance, the aforementioned S&P 500. Of the 500 stocks tracked in the flagship index, a mere twenty-five accounted for nearly two-thirds of this past quarter’s gains – or, simply put, a minority of stocks created the majority of returns. To your dedicated team of investment professionals, this phenomenon is a stark reminder that even when “all boats” are rising, some certainly rise higher than others. Which is why, even as we happily report that many of those top twenty-five companies are Tufton holdings, we remain hard at work on your behalf, in diligent search of fair priced value and growth stocks.
In the pages ahead, you’ll find an overview of one company that we believe fits that bill, Amazon.com (AMZN), along with some of our most current market insights. In an effort to more deeply articulate the thinking behind these insights, we’ve also included our firm’s outlook for both the economy and financial markets (please see our article beginning on page 2 entitled “The Second Quarter of 2021: Open for Business”). It’s our hope that you’ll read them at your leisure and give us a call should anything catch your eye. Because no matter where the summer takes you, and we do hope it’s somewhere relaxing, you can rest assured that we’ll be here, carefully guarding the trust you’ve placed in us.
Chad Meyer, CFA
President