By: Chad Meyer, CFA
In this space, a bit over twelve months ago, I admitted that I didn’t have a clue what sort of market 2024 would bring. “Perhaps the economy will thrive…buoyed by the Fed’s anticipated and continued monetary easing,” I wrote. “Or perhaps…lower interest rates coupled with strong corporate earnings and healthy balance sheets may lead to another year of double-digit returns for the equity markets.” (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
The fourth quarter capped another good year for equity investors. The Standard and Poor’s 500 gained 2.41% in the quarter and closed 25.02% higher for the year. The market had been up as much as 29.34% through December 6 before a late-year sell off. The trend of U.S. large capitalization growth stock performance continued in 2024. Most of the other equity indexes delivered more modest returns. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced almost 15%, and the Russell 2000 Small Capitalization Index gained 11.54%. The Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) All World Index, excluding the United States, which is a good proxy for international equity investments, logged a 13.27% gain. United States exceptionalism was again on full display in 2024. The exceptionalism, however, did not run deep. The equal-weighted S&P 500 was up only 13.01%, about half as much as the capitalization weighted S&P Index. (more…)
By: Scott Murphy
When you think of athletic brands, Nike (NKE) is likely the first name that comes to mind. Nike is known for its iconic “swoosh”, and it is one of the most recognized brand names in the world. While Nike has long been synonymous with innovation and cultural relevance, in the past few years it has suffered a few stumbles. (more…)
By: Alex Olshanskiy
Artificial Intelligence (AI) isn’t a genie that magically appeared from a lamp in late 2022. It has been hiding in plAIn sight, evolving steadily over the years under various names—machine learning, neural networks, data science—and is becoming increasingly integrated into our lives and businesses. It’s not a sudden breakthrough, but rather the result of years of innovation, research and trial. Companies like Alphabet, Carrier, Chevron, Digital Realty Trust, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Capital One Financial and others in your portfolio have been instrumental in not only advancing AI technology but also positioning it as a key driver for future growth. These organizations are shaping the landscape and ensuring that AI isn’t just a tool of today but a cornerstone for tomorrow’s business strategies. As we look ahead, it’s clear that AI is no longer a distant concept, but it is an essential force that is already transforming industries, solving complex challenges and opening doors to new opportunities. (more…)
By: Chad Meyer, CFA
With class officially back in session, it is perhaps fitting to greet fall with the words of an author familiar to most every American student. “October,” wrote Mark Twain, “is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
As the air grows cooler and the daylight hours grow shorter, the dreams of the boys of summer have once again been dashed. For the second consecutive year, the young hopefuls of Camden Yards suffered an early exit from the American League Wild Card series, scoring just one run over two games. The same, however, cannot be said for the U.S. stock market. Its winning streak continues following robust third quarter results. The broad market delivered a total return of 5.89%, bringing the year-to-date total to 22.08%. While the market is short of the 30% returns delivered in 1997, it has still managed returns greater than 20% throughout the first three quarters of the year. Alas, the Orioles won the American League East in 1997, but the Cleveland Indians clinched the pennant and advanced to the World Series. (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
Eli Lilly and Company (Ticker: LLY) discovers, develops and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. The company was founded in 1876 and went public in 1923. LLY is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana and has a rich history of developing many important drugs. In the 1920s, they were the first company to mass-produce insulin, and in the 1940s they were the first company to mass-produce penicillin. In the 1980s they introduced Prozac for mental health conditions. (more…)
By: Alex Olshanskiy
On September 18, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Open Market Committee made headlines by announcing a rate cut that exceeded market expectations. This decision, long anticipated and hotly debated throughout 2024, is being viewed as a potential catalyst for significant movements in both interest rates and stock prices. (more…)
By: Chad Meyer, CFA
With the fireworks long faded and the bunting stowed away, the high holiday of summer has come and gone. But if the party is over, a question now looms large. Who’s going to tell that to the American stock market? (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
The second quarter of 2024 extended the bull market run. The Standard & Poor’s 500 delivered a total return of 4.28%. For the year, the index is up 15.4%, and it is up 55% following the 21% bear market decline experienced in the first nine months of 2022. Unlike the widespread price appreciation in the first quarter, the second quarter was a repeat of calendar year 2023 with a very small select group of stocks, most tied to the Artificial Intelligence boom, driving most of the performance. Only three of the eleven index sectors outperformed the broad index during the quarter. Utility stocks finally joined the party when investors realized that all the AI computing power will take a lot of energy. Year-to-date, only two sectors have outperformed. As was the case in 2023, diversification has not been rewarded, and the equally weighted S&P 500 declined by 2.6% in the quarter. Artificial Intelligence stocks have sucked all the oxygen out of the market. (more…)
By: Barb Rishel
The dog days of summer are upon us, and I find myself seeking out cool temperatures wherever I can find them – indoors or outdoors, mostly indoors! I am especially grateful for the genius of Willis Havilland Carrier, an engineer by trade who invented air conditioning. Carrier installed his new product, named the “Apparatus for Treating Air” in a printing plant in Brooklyn, New York in 1902, and soon, numerous cotton and textile mills across the country found an increase in productivity wherever Carrier’s “air conditioners” were installed. Industrial companies all over the world wanted to equip their factories and mills with cooling products, and the Carrier Engineering Corporation was established in 1915. Even today, almost half of Carrier’s sales are from international customers. (more…)
By: Alex Olshanskiy
Devices, machines and systems are rapidly evolving towards greater intelligence. In recent years, the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a defining global force reshaping industries and investment landscapes. This transformative technology not only revolutionizes how businesses operate but also presents compelling opportunities for growth and innovation within our investment portfolios. (more…)
By: Chad Meyer, CFA
In a market that can be difficult to anticipate, there’s a simple pleasure to seeing spring arrive right on time. And if the early April showers outside our office are any indication, it would seem that May is planning to make a colorful entrance, indeed. (more…)
By: Eric Schopf
Strong fourth quarter momentum carried through to the first quarter resulting in robust gains for the stock market. The Standard & Poor’s 500 delivered a total return of 10.56%, and unlike last year, price appreciation was more widespread. Five of the eleven index sectors outperformed the broad index and only one sector, real estate, posted a negative total return. The stock market stood in sharp contrast to the bond market. Interest rates moved higher across the yield curve and bond prices fell. The S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond index, an index that measures the investment grade U.S. fixed income market including U.S. treasuries, quasi-governments, corporates, covered bonds and residential mortgage pass-throughs, posted a total return of -0.56%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed from 3.9% to 4.3%. (more…)
By: Scott Murphy
Amazon.com (AMZN), a broadly owned stock in our core portfolios, was recently anointed as the newest member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). As one of the largest publicly traded companies, one could argue this was long overdue. The S&P Dow Jones indices, which manages this thirty-stock benchmark, said the changes were prompted by Walmart’s (WMT) 3-for-1 stock split, which became effective on February 26, 2024. Amazon replaced Walgreens Boot Alliance (WBA) as one of the thirty stocks in the index. (more…)
