The Weekly View (11/9 – 11/13)

U.S. Stocks snapped a six-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 declining 3.6% and the Dow falling 3.7% during the week.  Stocks appear to be digesting the reality of a near-term interest rate increase (December 16th Fed meeting), which would be the first hike since 2006.  While this move would reflect a stronger economy, it means the days of easy money won’t last forever.

Consumer discretionary stocks, specifically the retailers, had a difficult week following earnings reports from companies such as Macy’s, Nordstrom and J.C. Penney.  While the warm weather has been an excuse for many department store operators, there’s no doubt that online retailers continue to take share from the bricks and mortar retailers.

Commodity prices also had a tough week, with oil falling 8% to $40.74 per barrel, contributing to a 6% slide in the overall energy sector.

Here is a look at last week’s numbers:

Friday’s Close: Weekly Change: YTD Change:
Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,245.24 (3.71%) (3.24%)
S&P 500 2,023.04 (3.63%) (1.74%)
NASDAQ 4,927.88 (4.26%) 4.05%
Russell 2000 1,146.55 (4.43%) (4.83%)
10-Year Treasury 2.27% (0.06%) 0.10%
30-Year Treasury 2.75% (0.34%) 0.00%

 

Looking Ahead – A preview of the week of November 16, 2015:

This week will be filled with more earnings reports, largely from retailers such as Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot and Best Buy.  The coming days will also be busy with more “Fed speak”, with minutes from the October 27-28 meeting being released on Wednesday.  Wall Street is now expecting the first rate hike since 2006.  Fed funds futures, used by investors to place bets on central-bank policy, have risen to reflect a 70% likelihood of a rate hike in December.  Wall Street is beginning to look past December and focus on rate hike #2 and its timing.  The pace of tightening is beginning to become more important than the date Fed liftoff.

Commodity prices, oil in particular, will continue to be on the minds of investors this week.  Energy stocks have been hit hard over the past 20 months, falling by a third since oil prices began to plunge in mid-2014.

chart for 11-16-15 update

Major earnings this week include:

Monday (11/16):         Tyson Foods (TSN), Agilent Technologies (A), Urban Outfitters (URBN), JD.com (JD)

Tuesday (11/17):         Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Home Depot (HD), TJX (TJX), Wal-Mart (WMT)

Wednesday (11/18):   Lowes (LOW), Staples (SPLS), Target (TGT), salesforce.com (CRM), NetApp (NTAP), Semtech (SMTC)

Thursday (11/19):       Best Buy (BBY), J.M. Smucker (SJM), Autodesk (ADSK), The Gap (GPS), Intuit (INTU), Splunk (SPLK), Fresh Market (TFM), Workday (WDAY)

Friday (11/20):            Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Foot Locker (FL), Hibbett Sports (HIBB)

 

Economic / macro reports this week include:

Monday (11/16):         G20 Leaders Summit (11/15 and 11/16)

Tuesday (11/17):         October CPI (consensus +0.2%) and IP #s

Wednesday (11/18):   Fed minutes from 10/27-28 meeting

Thursday (11/19):       ECB meeting minutes

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